Background
The company began as a small entrepreneurial venture established in 1971 at Kudus, East Java. The company�s products consist of three types, namely, cigarettes rolled in corn husk paper under three brand names, hand-rolled cigarettes under nine brand names, and machine-rolled cigarettes under six brand names, four of which are considered premium brands, namely Gudang Garam International, Surya 16, 10 packs Gudang Garam Merah, and the 12 packs Gudang Garam Merah. The company has installed a capacity of 105 billion cigarettes per year, includes 90 billion cigarettes machine rolled and 15 billion cigarette manufacture by hand using and enjoys a 49% market share for clove flavored cigarettes in Indonesia in 1997. In 1998 it�s market share decline to 39%. Its main distribution channels are 3 major distributors, namely, PT Surya Bhakti Utama, PT Surya Kerta Bhakti, and Surya Jaya Bhakti. In 1993 the company received a US$ 60 million syndicated loan from Singapore Banks, in order to increase its production capacity. Now capacity production has risen from 2,500 sticks to 12,000 sticks per minute. In 1994 exports reached 3.3 billion sticks, some 4% of it�s total sales. In 1994 the company increased its stake in PT Surya Pamenang, a packaging manufacturer, from 79% to 100% share. The company with 30% shares, PT Inhutani III with 40% shares and Enso Finlandia with 30% shares are set to cooperate in timber estate development. On 1996, these corporation developed 10,000 ha for industrial forest estate use, with development financing of Rp 260 billion. Early February 1997, the company hit buy an embezzlement conducted by it�s former Head of the Financial Department of the company representative office at Surabaya. Because of this embezzlement, the amount of losses was up to Rp 8.5 billion which then covered by the eight founders of the company. There were a number of important changes to both the Board of Commissioners and the Board of Directors in 2000, Rachman Halim was elected President Commissioner and Djajusman Surjowijono has been appointed President Director at the last shareholders meeting.
ShareholdersShareholder Name Procentage
Rachman Halim 0.94%
Juni Setiawati Wonowidjojo 0.52%
Susilo Wonowidjojo 0.28%
Sumarto Wonowidjojo 0.32%
Suryaduta Investama, PT 66.80%
Suryamitra Kusuma, PT 5.32%
Others 25.82%
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pjRxpwjWzxziX47m5-cNuCQ
Manajemen 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
ROE (%) 16.76 14.69 14.41 7.66 10.22
ROEX (%) 16.32 15.51 7.69 10.97
ROA (%) 16.90 14.17 14.23 10.08 10.57
ROAX (%) 16.83 15.29 9.90 11.64
Profit Margin (%) 7.95 7.37 7.61 3.83 5.13
Op Profit Mrg (%) 12.67 12.01 12.67 8.32 8.98
Resiko 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
DER 0.58 0.69 0.69 0.65 0.69
Quick Ratio 1.97 1.68 1.73 1.89 1.93
Balance Sheet: DER perusahaan konsisten pada level di bawah 0.7. Artinya Asset lebih banyak dimodali dengan uang investor daripada menggunakan hutang, otomatis aza beban financial perusahaan juga tidak berat.
Quick Ratio perusahaan yang berada di level 1.7 juga memberikan rasa aman bagi investor pada jangka pendek. Artinya untuk membayar hutang jangka pendek,perusahaan tidak perlu menggadaikan asset jangka panjangnya (cth: gedung, pabrik, dll).
P/L: Ada peningkatan di sales, namun tidak begitu tinggi. Ada indikasi perusahaan susah bertumbuha lagi. Rata2 pertumbuhan omset selama 5 tahun adalah 5% saja. Net income dan Operating income juga tidak menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang berarti.
ROE perusahaan selama 5 tahun menurun dari 16.76% ke 10.22%. ROA juga turun dari 16.90 ke 10.57. Ini bukan sinyal yang bagus. Margin juga mengecil seiring waktu.Kelihatannya industri ini udah sangat bersaing sehingga ada perang harga dan pertumbuhan juga tidak signifikan lagi.
Operating CF: Masih surplus lah dari tahun ke tahun. Tapi yah seperti yang kita lihat polanya udah nggak menentu lagi. Tidak terlihat adanya pertumbuhan yang jelas.
Perhitungan harga wajar dengan menggunakan CF rata2 sebagai CF awal dan asumsi growth 10% adalah Rp 6700.
update terbaru untuk semua saham IDX:
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